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Apple stock falls as analysts assess iPhone 18 pro and foldable demand

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Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock traded about 1% lower on Tuesday as broader market sentiment remained cautious, despite relative strength in the technology sector.

The stock move comes as investors assess Apple’s latest iPhone cycle, the rollout of its redesigned Siri assistant, and analyst views on demand for the company’s new devices.

Apple rolls out redesigned Siri

Apple released iOS 27 on Monday, introducing its redesigned Siri AI assistant in beta just days before the company’s latest iPhones are scheduled to reach stores.

The update brings Apple’s delayed Siri overhaul back into focus as the company works to expand its consumer artificial intelligence offerings.

Users must opt in through the Settings app to access the new Siri, while some users may have to join a waitlist before gaining access, CNBC reported.

Apple first announced a more personalised, AI-powered Siri in 2024, but the upgraded assistant was delayed last year.

The rollout coincides with the company’s latest hardware cycle and could provide another reason for customers to upgrade their devices.

Analysts have also pointed to Apple’s large installed base and ageing iPhone fleet as potential support for a broader replacement cycle.

Analysts see growth potential from iPhone cycle

Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster expects Apple’s staggered iPhone launch schedule to shift some growth into the March and June quarters.

Wall Street expects roughly 14% to 15% growth in the March quarter, according to Munster. He believes growth could approach 20% as delayed product launches contribute to sales.

Munster also highlighted Apple’s pricing power, noting that previous price increases had little effect on customer retention. That suggests consumers remain relatively loyal to the company’s ecosystem.

Yorkville Ives founding partner Dan Ives sees another potential catalyst in Apple’s installed base. He estimates that around 300 million iPhones have not been upgraded in more than four years, creating a sizeable replacement opportunity as Apple adds more AI capabilities.

Ives also expects a planned foldable iPhone, referred to as Duo, to eventually account for 15% to 20% of sales among Pro and Pro Max customers.

He expects limited customer churn from a roughly $100 price increase, although he cautioned that Apple’s pricing power has limits as higher memory costs pressure margins.

iPhone 18 lead times trail last year

Evercore ISI reiterated an Outperform rating and $365 price target on Apple following the start of pre-orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max.

Pre-orders began on September 12, with the devices scheduled to launch on September 18.

Average delivery times for the Pro Max stood at 25 days, compared with 19 days last year, while the Pro showed 16 days versus 12 days previously.

However, JPMorgan said early delivery lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max were tracking below last year’s iPhone 17 launch.

The bank’s analysts, led by Samik Chatterjee, said global at-home delivery timing averaged seven days for the Pro and 19 days for the Pro Max, compared with 15 and 24 days, respectively, a year earlier.

The US, which accounts for about 34% of iPhone shipments, showed lead times of two days for the Pro and 22 days for the Pro Max, compared with four and 21 days last year.

China recorded the largest year-over-year shift, with lead times of 13 days for the Pro and 21 days for the Pro Max, compared with 30 days for both models last year.

JPMorgan expects the foldable Duo to gain traction in China, where consumers have already been exposed to foldable devices from domestic manufacturers.

JPMorgan cautioned against drawing firm conclusions from the early data, noting that supply allocations can differ from previous years.

The analysts said tracking how lead times change over time will be important for assessing underlying demand.

As analysts continue tracking early demand signals for the iPhone 18 lineup, investors following Apple’s stock movement can compare price targets and ratings across top investment platforms to stay ahead of shifting sentiment.

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